Came across this the other day. Found the story really interesting. They attempt to go past the normal earthquake story. You know, ground shakes, buildings fall and then we go back to thinking about other things.
Take a moment and read the article....... we will wait......
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-california-earthquake-refugee-arizona-20180603-story.html
Al'righty, let's think about this for moment. We make it through the earthquake. Then what? What if the roads suddenly look like the one in the picture above? Your not going to just drive home. Maybe you are trying to get home and this is in your way.
"In the San Francisco Bay Area, more than 400,000 could be displaced in a magnitude 7 earthquake on the Hayward fault, which directly runs underneath cities like Berkeley, Oakland, Hayward and Fremont, said Ken Hudnut, the U.S. Geological Survey’s science advisor for risk reduction. And it’s possible that more than 250,000 people in Southern California could be forced out of their homes after a major earthquake on the San Andreas fault, Hudnut said."
Imagine 250,000 people suddenly moving. Most of us can not really wrap our heads around the idea. Not really. We may think we have a grasp of the numbers. In reality very few of us have any idea what a migration of this type would look like.
"Not everyone will need to stay in public shelters — many will stay with relatives, friends and hotels. Still, more than 175,000 people may have no other choice than stay at a public shelter in Southern California, which could be could be challenged with acute shortages of food, water and medicine, according to ShakeOut, a USGS report simulating a major Southern California earthquake."
Even if we skip trying to wrap our heads around that many people moving we can imagine the roads being blocked. How long can the large urban centers go without trucks bringing them supplies? Two days, three days or maybe a week. At some point the supplies have to come in our the people have to move to the supplies. This is what the article starts to address. A portion of the scenario which seems to be over looked by many people when they discuss planning for "The Big One".
"Arizona recently took a major step in dealing with this question. Officials in May launched a full-scale exercise that simulated a mass exodus of 400,000 evacuees from Southern California. The drill gave emergency workers a chance to consider how they would respond to the many elements of the disaster: providing food and shelter, helping unaccompanied minors, assisting in family reunification, and dealing with the transportation and resource hurdles.
The exercise was aimed at beginning to think about how to deal with such a refugee crisis, though experts in California said it’s unlikely that many people would end up in Arizona. It may actually be quite difficult to leave California after an earthquake moves one side of the San Andreas past the other by as much as 30 feet — severing routes to Phoenix on Interstate 10 in the Coachella Valley and Las Vegas on Interstate 15 at the Cajon Pass.
Also complicating problems would be a widespread lack of power, thwarting the ability of motorists to refuel. “If you choose to go, it’s going to be difficult to do so. It’s a pretty hot desert between you and Phoenix,” seismologist Lucy Jones said."
Picture traffic on a Friday night. Took me almost two hours to travel around sixty miles today. Traffic wasn't really bad for a weekend. Now picture people upset, scared. trying to get to what they believe is safety for them. Maybe they have a car full of kids. By the time they decide to move odds are they were running out of items they need. Food, water, maybe their shelter is gone. Think of Friday traffic and add in these elements. Traffic and people's attitudes while driving can be bad enough. Now envision them thinking their life truly does depend on reaching their destination.....
The article points out highways would be severed by the ground shifting in several key points. How would that effect the flow of traffic out of the LA Basin or in your city? Traffic heading to Las Vegas on a weekend can be absolutely ridicules. Add in roads physically damaged and unusable.
How does having the roads severed effect relief supplies from making into the city? Sure the authorities could bring enough supplies to make a difference. Even with the roads out they could bring in supplies. There is always airplanes and helicopters, right? How much weight in supplies can a big helicopter bring in? Is it enough for the 13,131,431 in the LA Metropolitan area?
Maybe you could find another road? Lots of surface streets most of the city dwellers use daily to beat traffic. Must be some way around damaged freeways to make it to Arizona, right? No. There is a lot of desert to get stranded in and die......... Our normal mode of travel and daily routine tend to give us a false idea of distance. 20 miles isn't too far on a normal day. same 20 miles at 5 miles an hour, with hungry kids in the car is a totally different experience.
"Experts say it would be much better to shelter in place at home. Owners can take steps to do so by retrofitting older houses or apartments now at risk for sliding off its foundation or collapsing in an earthquake. Residents can prepare by storing water, food, medicine and other supplies to sustain themselves for, ideally, two weeks, or at least a minimum of 72 hours. A gallon of water per day per person is recommended."
Most of us have heard this before. We should have at least 72 hours of supplies on hand. How many have noticed the "experts" keep upping the number of days you should be able to take care of yourself? Three days is a great place to start! We all should have this amount on hand as a minimum. Once we do have three days worth we just replicate what we did the first time and now we have six days worth. Which puts us well above what our neighbors have done according to the experts.
Remember what we start with can be as simple as this. Here is a link to an earlier article about using $20 to start preparing.
"Unfortunately, most Californians don’t bother to be prepared, and a failure to stock up on something as basic as drinking water could lead residents to leave even if their home is structurally sound.... It’s clear the public doesn’t think about these things,” Hudnut said. “I’d rather be one of those people who doesn’t have to go and has more water stored.”
Article is focused on people leaving but what happens if your neighbors know you have water and they do not? What happens when they come over and ask for your water? What happens when they keep asking for your water? What happens when you have to tell them they can not have any more water from your families supply? People will do all kinds of things to take care of their family and themselves. Something for my friends in California to think about as they continue to allow their ability to have tools to defend themselves slip away.......
"But a big wild card that would push someone to flee are fires following an earthquake, with shattered pipes expected to hamper firefighting......... in Southern California, it’s possible the equivalent of 133,000 single-family homes will be charred."
Well just when you made it this far in a post and your thinking "I am good! We have everything in place for what he has pointed out! I am done!" OOPS! This article again goes past the normal earthquake story.
Suddenly fire comes.... You rode out the earthquake. You set up shop at the house. Everything is good to go. Then you notice a red glow in the distance at night. Maybe you see smoke, the dark brown, black, dirt colored smoke you know means a fire is coming. Are you ready to run? Even with one plan in motion we need to remember to be ready to start another. Mother Nature has a way of humbling you when you think you have a handle on things.
Random picture to reward those who are still reading this.......
"Elements of emergency plans have already been put in force. When more than 100,000 people were ordered evacuated downstream of Oroville Dam last year....But one lesson that has been learned is that most people aren’t inclined to flee long distances, as was the case in the Wine Country wildfires last year."
In reality how far could you move. Take a moment right now. Earthquake comes, right now. You ride it out but now is the time to go. How much gas do you have in your cars? How many routes do you know? What if the roads are clogged? Can you physically move yourself under your own power to a distance which would help you to survive?
“We found most people want to stay near to or close to their homes,” Huston said, even if it meant pitching a tent in front a damaged property. That means a key priority may be, for instance, “to provide food and assistance to neighborhood by neighborhood.”
Are you thinking you can just pitch a tent in the front yard and wait for help? Do you have a tent? Do you know how to pitch it? You sure waiting for the government to feed and water you is a good idea.
This is getting long so we will stop around here. This article seemed important to share. If this paper is posting articles going past the basics of earthquake planning maybe we should take heed of this? Maybe we should take stock of what we really could handle or do, right now! Not what we plan on doing a month from now. But using this moment to think about what we can do and work toward improving our abilities to deal with emergency situations.
And just to keep the balance in the universe.....
As Always,
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